SUPPOSE that, five years ago, George Bush had asked every American household to stump up $25,000 to pay for an imminent war on Iraq. How would they have responded?

That money, suitably husbanded, would have paid for arming, provisioning and remunerating the troops; treating the wounded; and restoring the army's strength in the aftermath. It would have paid just compensation for the death and injury of American servicemen and contractors, and it would have covered America's outlays on reconstruction. It would also have allowed America to subsidise the price of oil by $10 a barrel—offsetting the disruption to Iraq's supply.
 

Mr Bush never asked, of course. But this hefty sum is nonetheless just part of the toll the war may take on America by the time it is over, according to a new book by Joseph Stiglitz, a Nobel prize-winner in economics, and Linda Bilmes, a budget and public finance expert at Harvard's Kennedy School of Government.

How do the authors arrive at the $3 trillion figure of the title, and the still bigger numbers they report inside? To the administration's own requests for money they add other costs to the taxpayer that either appear elsewhere in the budget (such as the bonuses required to attract recruits put off by the war) or do not yet appear at all (such as the future disability claims of wounded veterans). They put a dollar figure on the American lives lost or damaged by debilitating injury. And they also estimate the damage the war has done to the American economy, by raising the price of oil and diverting spending from domestic investment to foreign adventures.

Along the way, they accuse the administration of both mortgaging the nation's future and short-changing the troops and of deceiving the public and deluding itself. The administration still treats a five-year war as an unforeseen contingency to be paid for by an extra, emergency appropriation outside its regular budget request. And it has indulged in false economies that shave the cash requirements of the war today—by, for example, hesitating to purchase mine-resistant vehicles—only to store up much bigger burdens for the future, such as the cost of caring for veterans injured by roadside bombs.